My Winter Wishes: Hot Stove 2014-2015

In my last post I stated that I would write another post regarding possible off season transactions (or non-transactions) that the Cardinals should make.  This is that post.  I am just a fan, not any sort of expert, so my suggestions are nothing more than an amateur opinion.  I confess right now to not having much insight into the trade value of any player, major or minor league, or any idea of what the market is going to be.  These are all just shots in the dark.  They are also, admittedly, tinged with some personal bias on my part.  I will do this by naming a current Cardinal player first and then stating what I think should be done with that player.  I will talk about arb-eligible players as well as free agents and even some not yet arb-eligible players.

 

FREE AGENTS:

1.  Jason Motte—-This will be Motte’s first foray into free agency.  Motte is one season removed from Tommy John surgery, a season where predictably he was not very effective.  Motte has always been a pitcher who relies primarily on his fastball velocity and that velocity was down this season.  At 98-99 mphs Motte is effective.  At 95-96 mph not so much, because he has no secondary pitch of any substance to offset that.  Yes, he has a cutter, but it is too much like his fastball to make a difference.  Now, whether Motte’s fastball velocity will return to his pre TJ numbers is anybody’s guess.  However, I don’t think it matters, because the Cardinals already have hard throwers Rosenthal and Martinez on the roster, with several others waiting in the wings, such as Sam Tuivailala.  Relievers are very fungible, so I would expect Motte has pitched his last as a Cardinal.  Good luck to him.

2.  Pat Neshek—Part of me would like to see Neshek return to the Cardinals on a one year deal.  The bigger part of me realizes that:  (a) Neshek can probably get a better deal somewhere else; and (b) because relievers are fungible and there is no guarantee that Neshek can replicate his 2014 success, the Cardinals should let him move on.

3.  Mark Ellis—I thought this was a good deal when it was made.  Ellis is an above-average defender at second base and it was worth a shot.  It didn’t work out.  I wish him well in his future endeavors.

4. Justin Masterson—It was worth a shot to see if Masterson could bring some short term value.  It didn’t happen.  I still don’t think the trade was a bad idea, because I was not that high on James Ramsey to begin with (we have better outfield prospects) and we traded from depth.  You win some, you lose some.  Masterson taught Shelby Miller to throw a sinker, so he had some value after all.  Bye Bye.

5.  A.J. Pierzynski.  I was not a big fan of this acquisition when it first happened, but he grew on me.  He is the other free agent, along with Neshek, that I have a moderate amount of angst about losing.  Not so much for his baseball skills, but just because of his personality.  I think we need someone like A.J in that milquetoast atmosphere the Cardinals call a clubhouse.  A little too much buttoned up sanctimony and inbreeding for my taste.  Having John Lackey back may help, but A.J. would be ideal.  Alas, we could really use a decent back up catcher and A.J. just isn’t that guy.  Neither is Tony Cruz, but that is covered below.  See ya, A.J.

 

ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE PLAYERS:

1.  Daniel Descalso—This guy is on the top of my list of players who have to go.  It’s not personal, but he has little to no value on the roster.  Can’t hit, can’t field.  He is also one of Mike Matheny’s favorites, which is reason enough to let him go.   If no one will take him in a trade, then he should be non-tendered.  Do it Mo.

2.  Tony Cruz—I actually like Tony Cruz, but my liking him doesn’t mean he should remain on the team.  We need a new back up catcher, one that can hit some.  I realize that Mike Matheny has this thing for never pinch hitting the back up catcher, but that needs to change.  It’s really stupid.  The Cardinals have a history of valuing defense more than offense in their catchers, and there is nothing wrong with that.  However, if you can find a good defensive catcher who can also hit, he is probably a starter.  A hitting catcher on the bench would be a nice change of pace.  So, I suggest the Cardinals look for one, and Tony Cruz be either traded or non-tendered.

3.  Shane Robinson—Good ole Shane is not without value (he is a pretty good outfield defender and has some speed), but not enough value to keep him with all the outfield depth the Cardinals have.  We have other options for a 4th OFer, which is all he has ever been.  Trade or non-tender.

4.  Lance Lynn—Can you spell extension?  Like the Cardinals should really give him one.  If not, obviously he should be tendered a contract.  He is going to get a substantial raise in arbitration, and he deserves one.  Right now I see him as the Cardinals #2 starter.  This is a no-brainer.

5.  Jon JayThis one and the next one are going to get some folks’ dander up.  I don’t care.  Trade him.  Jay’s value is never going to be as high as it is now and his arbitration salary is going to approach 6M, which in my opinion is too much for a 2nd year arb player whose only really good skill is hitting a lot of singles and getting on base.  He’s also going to be 30 years old in March.  Can you spell decline?  His defense was better this year,(it was terrible last year), but how many people have in the back of their mind that only happened because he had some very stiff competition named Peter Bourjos?  A player worth paying 6M to shouldn’t have to be motivated by outside forces to play his best.  Moreover, that throwing arm is a train wreck and he is the worst base runner on the team in terms of making outs on the basepaths.  Get something of value for him before his value goes down.  My suggestion?  See: Tony Cruz, above—a hitting back up catcher.  How about Evan Gattis?  The Braves are likely to trade him, Gattis can really hit, and the Braves could use a center fielder who isn’t B.J. Upton.

6.  Peter Bourjos—What you saw this year in terms of offense is not the real Peter Bourjos.  Trust me, this is my 4th season of watching him play.  Is he a .300 hitter?  No.  But he has the ability to be a .270ish hitter with regular playing time, and with his defense and speed that makes him better than Jon Jay.  He also has a little pop in his bat.  The only reservation I have about keeping him on the team is that he has to play for Mike Matheny.  As we have seen with Oscar Taveras, if Matheny has taken a dislike to Bourjos, he will find any excuse he can to not play him.  That means Randal Grichuk as the every day center fielder (assuming Jay is traded).  Randal Grichuk is not the defensive center fielder that Bourjos is, he isn’t as fast, he strikes out more than Bourjos does, and he can’t hit RHP consistently.  He is an inferior CFer to Bourjos in every way,  which means that Matheny will play him and not Bourjos.  Without some intervention from Mozeliak it will be 2014 all over again.  Which isn’t fair to an elite CFer who deserves to play every day.  So, keep him if Mozeliak can some how force Matheny to play him.  If not, then give him the opportunity to play every day somewhere else.

 

NON ARB PLAYERS:

1.  Oscar Taveras—There are some Cardinals fans who think Oscar Taveras will or should be traded.  That is incredibly, monumentally dumb.  Oscar Taveras did not play enough in 2014 for ANY fair evaluation of his skills or future potential.  Those who make judgements about players based on small sample sizes just annoy the hell out of me.  Maybe he has some work ethic issues.  Maybe he has some conditioning issues.  Maybe he is only 22 years old and folks need to chill out.  Maybe Mike Matheny should spend less time criticizing Taveras and more time making sure he is getting the help that he needs to improve in these areas.  Oscar should still be a Cardinal in 2o15.

2.  Randal Grichuk—I want to like Randal Grichuk.  Until Mike Matheny decided he was the anti-Taveras, I actually did.  Not as a starting OFer, but as a 4th OFer to hit against LHP and be a defensive sub in the corners.  If Jon Jay is traded and Mozeliak makes Matheny play Peter Bourjos and Oscar Taveras every day then Randal Grichuk as a bench player is perfect.  Otherwise, he needs to go, either back to Memphis or to another team.  The bottom line is that we can’t have another repeat of 2014.  The Cardinals as managed by Mike Matheny cannot have Jay, Bourjos, Taveras and Grichuk all competing for playing time again.  Matheny can’t be trusted.

 

I am not going to address those players who are on the fringes of the big league club, like Tommy Pham, Greg Garcia, Pete Kozma and Xavier Scruggs.  How or if they are incorporated into next year’s team will depend on what moves Mozeliak makes in the offseason. It is entirely possible if Daniel Descalso is gone from the team, Kozma or Garcia will take his place.  Tommy Pham could be in the OF mix depending on offseason moves as well.  I just don’t have a good read on how they fit in so I am leaving them out. Assuming Motte and Neshek don’t return, there could be additions to the bullpen as well.

I am sure there are many who would like Mozeliak’s biggest offseason move to be firing Mike Matheny.  While that idea is not unpleasant to me, I believe it is extremely unlikely.  We are stuck with him.  I just want Mozeliak to minimize the damage he can inflict by making the roster as Matheny proof as possible.

Let’s hope 2015 begins and ends better.

 

 

Thank you for reading.

 

 

 

 

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2 Comments

  1. baseballmania

     /  October 20, 2014

    He will never fire Matheny. 3 NL post seasons and a world series appearance.
    I know of quite a few teams (told to me by an agent/scout) who would love to get descalso
    or jay. Tony Cruz cant hit because he never gets in the game. But I do think AJP would make a better back up when yadi gets hurt again.
    Oscar Tavares…trade him. Award Lynn.

    Like

    Reply
    • baseballmania

       /  October 20, 2014

      Jay has had an injury yet had a great season.
      We never know whats really goin on, do we?

      Like

      Reply

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